Whakarāpopototanga o te Mākete o ia Rā 2026.2.4

E ai ki ngā mōhiohio mākete hou, ko ngā piki me ngā heke o te utu parahi o nāianei e pāngia ana e ngā āhuatanga nui e whai ake nei::

1. Ngā huringa o ngā tumanakohanga mō te kaupapa here moni o te US

Te whakatūnga a Trump i a Walsh hei heamana o te Fed: Ka whakaoho i ngā tumanakohanga kaha i roto i te mākete, ka piki ohorere ngā raraunga pikinga PPI o te US, ka tere te ora o te tāra, ā, he pānga kino ki ngā utu parahi.

2 Te nekehanga o tetāra tāra

Nā te ngoikore o te tāra i tautoko i ngā utu parahi, engari kua whakaatu te tāra i ngā tohu o te hokinga mai i ngā rā tata nei. Nā te riri a Trump ki te whakapiki i te reiti taripa o Kōrea ki te Tonga mai i te 15% ki te 25%, me te tūponotanga 80% o te kati kāwanatanga o Amerika, kua piki ake te koretake o ngā kaupapa here a Amerika, ā, kua ngoikore hoki te tāra.

3 Ngā mōrearea ā-ao tōrangapū

Ko te koretake o ngā mahi tōrangapū ā-rohe a te US i Īrāna me Venezuela, me te patu a Chile i aukati i te urunga atu ki ngā maina parahi e rua, he pānga tika ki te hanga parahi. Nā ēnei āhuatanga tōrangapū kua hohonu ake te aromatawai o te mākete i ngā mōrearea tuku parahi.

4. Ngā pānga o te kaupapa here hokohoko

Kei te mau tonu te pānga kino o ngā āwangawanga mō ngā taripa o Amerika ki ngā utu parahi. Kei te mau tonu te pānga o te kaupapa here a Amerika ki te whakatakoto i te taripa 10% ki ngā kawemai Hainamana i te tau 2025, ā, kua piki ake ngā āwangawanga o te mākete mō te mōrearea o te pakanga hokohoko i ia wā, i ia wā.

5. Tetaiao ōhanga o te ao

Kei te neke haere te taiao pūtea o te ao i tētahi huarahi e tino pai ake ana. I runga i tēnei āhuatanga, kua piki ake ngā mākete hea nui o te ao, ā, kua kite hoki ngā mākete taonga i tētahi pikinga whānui. Engari i te mea kua hoki mai te PMI hangahanga ki te rārangi pikinga-paheketanga tata ki te 50%, e tūmanakohia ana kāore te ECB e whakakore i te pikinga o ngā reiti huamoni i te tau 2026.

6. Hononga mākete konganuku utu nui

Kua piki haere anō ngā āhuatanga pūtea o te parahi i ēnei rā tata nei, ā, kei te whakararuraru nui ngā konganuku utu nui i ngā utu o te parahi. Nā te ngoikore tere o ngā utu koura me te hiriwa, kei te tere haere te heke o ngā utu o te parahi.

Kei te wā tēnei e piki haere ana, e heke iho ana hoki ngā uara matua me ngā uara taketake, ā, kei te huri haere ngā kare ā-roto o te mākete. He mea pai kia aro nui ki te ahunga kaupapa here a te Federal Reserve, te nekehanga o te tāra US, me ngā huringa o ngā mōrearea ā-ao.

I runga i ngā mōhiohio mākete hou, ka tātarihia e au te utu parahi mō ngā marama e toru e whai ake nei, me te matapae hoki:

Te āhua o te mākete o nāianei mō ngā utu parahi

E ai ki ngā raraunga a te SMM, ko te utu toharite mō te parahi hiko 1# i te 3 o Pēpuere, 2026 he 101,320 yuan ia tana, he hekenga iho tēnei mai i te taumata tiketike o Hānuere o te 104,410 yuan ia tana. I ngā wā o mua, i whakaatu ngā utu parahi i tētahi ia pikinga mārama i waenga i Noema 2025 me Hānuere 2026, mai i te 86,840 yuan ia tana ki te 104,410 yuan ia tana.

Matapae mō ngā marama e toru e whai ake nei:

kotahiHauwhā Tuatahi (Hui-tanguru – Maehe): Wā whakarerekētanga hurihuri

Te awhe utu e tumanakohia ana: 98,000-103,000 yuan/tēne

Kei roto te utu parahi o nāianei i tētahi wāhanga whakatikatika teitei, ā, ko ngā āhuatanga e whai ake nei te nuinga e pāngia ana:

1) Te koretake o te kaupapa here whānui: Nā te whakaingoatanga a Trump i a Walsh hei heamana o te Fed kua ara ake ngā tumanakohanga a te hunga whai rawa, ā, nā te pikinga o te tāra i pēhi ngā utu parahi.

A. Te pēhanga i te taha tono: I heke te tere whakahaere taura parahi ki te 68.89% i te marama o Tīhema, nā te utu parahi teitei i aukati te tukunga o te tono i raro iho

B. Te rerekētanga o te hanganga taonga: Kei te piki haere tonu ngā taonga o te US, engari he iti noa iho ngā taonga i ngā rohe ehara i te US

e ruaTe tīmatanga o te hauwhā tuarua (Paenga-whāwhā): Te wā whakapūmau me te wā whakaora

Te awhe utu e tumanakohia ana: 102,000-108,000 yuan/tēne

I te puta haere mai o ngā āhuatanga pai e whai ake nei:

1) Tautoko taha tuku: Kua whakapiki ake te Komihana Parahi ā-Motu o Chile i te matapae utu parahi mō te tau 2026 ki te $4.95 ia pauna (tata ki te $10,900 ia tana)

2) Ngā mōrearea ā-ao: Nā te mahi porotēhi i Chile i aukati te urunga atu ki ngā maina parahi e rua, ā, he pānga tika tēnei ki te hanga parahi.

3) Te hiahia mō te whakawhiti pūngao: Kei te tū pakari tonu te tūranga matua o te parahi i roto i ngā pokapū raraunga AI me te whakawhiti pūngao ma

Te tātari i ngā āhuatanga matua e awe ana:

kotahiNgā āhuatanga piki

1. Te iti o te tuku o te hanganga: Ka whakapiki ake a Goldman Sachs i tana matapae utu parahi mō te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2026 ki te $12,750 ia tana, me te kī he iti te utu nā te iti o ngā taonga i waho o te Hononga o Amerika.

2. Te tumanako mō te ngoikore o te tāra: Ahakoa te hokinga mai mō te wā poto, kei te tautoko tonu te ia o te ngoikore o te tāra mō te wā roa i ngā utu parahi

3. He hekenga takirua o ngā taonga: Kua hoki mai ngā whiwhinga whakakorenga parahi a te LME ki te 37%, tera pea ka heke anō mēnā ka tangohia ngā taonga katoa.

e ruaNgā āhuatanga whakaheke

1. Ka pehia te tono e ngā utu teitei: Nā te pikinga tonu o ngā utu parahi kua tino heke te tono, ā, kei te tino tupato haere ngā kamupene i roto i ā rātou hoko.

2. Te whakakaha i ngā kaupapa here whānui: Ngā tumanakohanga kaha a te hunga whāngai me ngā āwangawanga mō ngā kaupapa here hokohoko

3. Ka tangohia ngā hua e ngā pūtea whakapae: Ka whiriwhiri ētahi kaipupuri moni ki te raka i muri i te teitei o ngā utu parahi

Whakatūpato mō te Tūponotanga:

Ka pāngia ngā utu parahi e ēnei mōrearea e whai ake nei i roto i ngā marama e toru e whai ake nei:

- Te wā tika me te kaha o te kaupapa here taake o te US

- Te tere o ngā panonitanga kaupapa here moni i roto i ngā ōhanga nui o te ao

- Te pānga tuturu o ngā pakanga ā-ao tōrangapū ki ngā mekameka tuku taonga

Whakataunga whānui: Ka whakaatuhia e ngā utu parahi te ia o te hekenga tuatahi, kātahi ka piki ake i roto i ngā marama e toru e whai ake nei, me te iti o te wāhi hoki whakamuri mō te wā poto, ā, kei te piki tonu te turanga e tautokona ana e ngā kaupapa matua o te tuku me te tono mō te wā waenga me te wā roa. Me aro tonu ngā kaipupuri moni ki ngā huringa o ngā taonga, ngā ia kaupapa here whānui me te whakaoranga o te tono mō te wā kei raro iho.